Recession Helps Romney in 08 Elections

This weekend revealed a race that boils down to two head-to-head matchups: Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama and John McCain vs. Mitt Romney. The deciding factors going forward will be economic experience and party backing, both of which favor Clinton and Romney.

The three-day holiday weekend had a full campaign schedule: In Nevada, both parties held a caucus, and in South Carolina, the Republicans held a primary and the Democrats had a contentious debate.

With the housing market and stock market stumbling, the election focus will shift to the economy, with voters deciding which candidate they trust to manage the economy.

The race between McCain and Romney remains remarkably close. Mike Huckabee won the first caucus in Iowa, but attacks on his record as Arkansas' governor have stalled his momentum. Since Iowa, McCain and Romney have traded wins. Romney has the overall lead in delegates with 66 to McCain's 38.

Recent national polls have shown McCain moving into first place over both Huckabee and Romney. It's hard to judge the validity of these polls in light of past predictive history in the Republican race. For example, Rudy Giuliani led national polls all summer and fall with similar margins to McCain's. Even Huckabee knocked off Giuliani for about a week.

Over the weekend, Romney easily won Nevada because he was the only candidate who had spent significant time campaigning there. South Carolina seemed more important. There, McCain edged Huckabee despite the considerable Christian conservative influence in the state.

Exit Polls from the Palmetto State showed voters' Number One concern was the economy. But voters also said they cared more about a candidate's values than his experience. The latter explains why McCain and Huckabee performed so well.

McCain, on the other hand, has sheepishly said he has little economic experience. He mentioned this during a recent Republican debate and made similar comments to The Wall Street Journal's editorial board. It appears that his lone economic adviser is another former senator, Phil Gramm.

The economy, however, will remain a hot topic for the next few months with voters all over the nation. This should help Romney, who will be able to tout his experience in business as the head of Bain Capital Management, a successful private-equity firm. Romney's reputation is also bolstered by his turnaround of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics. The Olympics were plagued by scandal. Romney rejuvenated the games and brought in hundreds of millions of dollars in corporate sponsorships.

Romney's message on the economy allowed him to beat McCain in Michigan. The Romney campaign will continue to play up this distinction in the run up to Super Tuesday, including using sound bites of McCain about his lack of experience.

Romney is also better placed to campaign nationally than McCain, given his vast fortune.

Romney also has better backing from conservative elites than McCain. McCain has managed to discourage conservatives with his atypical legislative record. Romney, on the other hand, has received the endorsement of important voices, such as The National Review's.

Should the economy remain the news story of the next few weeks, then look for Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney to secure the nominations in their respective parties.